Mathematical modelling is essential to develop a quantitative and predictive theory of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our team has been generating new understanding and making predictions based on rigorous mathematical modelling since March 1st. Our models are parameterized via direct fitting to BC epidemic data (public data and additional information held at BCCDC), using international data (especially to understand the time course of disease in an infected individual) and additional information, e.g. around the effects of social distancing in BC such as transit usage, cell phone provider location data and Google location summaries.
Group Lead: Daniel Coombs (Mathematics)